Lessons from RAND"s work on planning under uncertainty for national security

  • 4.30 MB
  • 522 Downloads
  • English
by
RAND , Santa Monica, CA
Interagency coordination, System analysis, Planning, National security, Strategic pla
StatementPaul K. Davis
Classifications
LC ClassificationsUA23 .D2877 2012
The Physical Object
Paginationp. cm.
ID Numbers
Open LibraryOL25377262M
ISBN 139780833076618
LC Control Number2012028666

A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude. A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. Lessons from RAND's national security work on planning under uncertainty can be applied in many other fields. Get this from a library.

Lessons from RAND's work on planning under uncertainty for national security. [Paul K Davis] -- A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude.

A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. As the Cold War waned, RAND. Reading The Lessons of Tragedy would benefit politicians, national security professionals, and civilians alike—in the same way that the great theatrical tragedies benefited ancient Greece society.

I cannot recommend it highly enough.”—Robert Work, 32nd United States Deputy Secretary of Defense. National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty. by Paul K. Davis. Related Topics: organized by the Center for National Security Studies at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and held SeptemberHe thus gives an idea of at least one way the United States may wish to plan in a period of great change and uncertainty.

An Overview of Planning Under Uncertainty Jim Blythe Information Sciences Institute University of Southern California Admiralty Way Marina del Rey, CA USA [email protected] Pre-print from AI Magazine, 20(2), Summerpp 37– Abstract The recent advances in computer speed and algorithms for probab ilistic inference have led to a.

a National Security Council on the very irst day of the new Government, and appointed a National Security Adviser. The National Security Council brings together key Ministers, and military and intelligence chiefs.

It meets weekly and is driving a culture of change in Whitehall, placing a. "Tom Fingar's distillation of lessons learned during more than two decades at the nexus of intelligence analysis and national security decision-making is clear, concise, and brimming with insight.

Reducing Uncertainty should be required reading for all who produce, use, or think about intelligence."Cited by: When n I we first thought of writing a book on managing uncertainty, it was through intellectual curiosity about what our research would reveal.

A wealth of work on the topic had been published in the previous decade, but as much of it was written by academics, it was theoretical and not based on commercial good practice.

Download Lessons from RAND"s work on planning under uncertainty for national security FB2

Much of it was datedFile Size: KB. Yet, under uncertainty, the more traditional approaches to strategic planning can be considered downright dangerous (Courtney et al., ) because planning on uncertainty creates an intellectual.

At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that executives, by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, can predict the future of any business accurately enough to choose a clear strategic direction for it. The process often involves underestimating uncertainty in order to lay out a vision of future events sufficiently precise to be captured in a discounted-cash.

Reducing Uncertainty should be required reading for all who produce, use, or think about intelligence." —Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft, National Security Advisor to Presidents Ford and George H.W.

Bush "When I was chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, the only person who spent more time in my office than the secretary was Tom Fingar. der (general) uncertainty. 1 Introduction Planning problems can be classified, based on the effects of actions, in deterministic, probabilistic or nondeterministic.

In this paper we are concerned with action dynamics under gen-eral forms of uncertainty; indeed, we are interested in plan-ning under both risk and Knightian Uncertainty Advantage, a new book from Gary S. Lynch, introduces you to leaders who, when faced with great uncertainty, pursued it acutely and understood it in the context of the market and actors (customers, investors, strategic partners, regulators, competitors), developed unique talents, leveraged organizational skills and competencies, sought out innovative capabilities, and then, when the.

We are a multi-disciplinary association of professionals dedicated to improving decision making under deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty exists when parties to a decision do not know, or cannot agree on, the system model that relates action to consequences, the probability distributions to place over the inputs to these models, which consequences to consider and their relative importance.

On the issue of uncertainty about the state of the economy, Bill's work continues to provide fundamental insights regarding the choice of policy instrument.

Money demand relationships were relatively stable through the s and s, but, in the wake of dramatic innovations in banking and financial markets, short-term money-demand.

uncertainty in the Science •High levels of uncertainty can diminish buy-in by policy makers, funding agencies and the wider community •Nevertheless, there is a responsibility on Science to articulate uncertainty even if the possible scenario outcomes for policy decisions are many and variedFile Size: KB.

This was published under the to Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition government Documents A Strong Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: The National Security Strategy. TRB Conference Proceedings Key Issues in Transportation Programming summarizes plenary and breakout sessions of a November conference that explored the current state of the practice and long-term implementation experience associated with the programming process, successful practices in linking planning and programming, and the linking of programming processes to the development of.

the uncertainty inherent in complex and turbulent environments. Methodologies suitable to planning under uncertainty should attempt to preserve future flexibility, by keeping options open for later resolution.

This thesis describes the development of Scenario-Robustness Methodology (SRM), a flexible methodology for planning under uncertainty. Exploring how the region is changing today—as transnational solidarity and a single regional economy remove the distinctions between national and international politics—the book explores whether South African domination can finally be overcome and considers what sort of cosmopolitan political arrangement will be appropriate for southern Cited by:   Security strategy: The age of uncertainty yesterday a national security strategy and today, umbilically, a strategic defence and security review which will set out the future shape of our.

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Harv Bus Rev. Nov-Dec;75(6) Strategy under uncertainty. Courtney H(1), Kirkland J, Viguerie P. Author information: (1)McKinsey and Company, Washington, DC, USA.

At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a Cited by: Strategic Planning Under Uncertainty: Stochastic Integer Programming Approaches Welcome to the IDEALS Repository.

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Some features of this site may not work without it. Browse. IDEALS. Titles Authors Contributors Subjects Date Communities. Strategic Planning Under Uncertainty: Stochastic Integer Cited by: Scenario-planning techniques are fundamental to determining strategy under conditions of uncertainty. Game theory will help managers understand uncertainties based on competitors’ conduct.

US military goes to war with climate sceptics with its responsibility for national security, is proving a strong advocate of the need to plan for climate change.

Uncertainty is an inherent. The Center for Decision Making under Uncertainty assesses the depth and breadth of uncertainty and risk levers in policy domains and research pathways.

It employs multiple methodologies, including forecasting and decision support, to analyze organizational decisions in broad settings where the uncertainty is high, the risk is complex, and the implications of such decisions are long term and.

Planning for the Worst: Risk, Uncertainty and the Olympic Games show' that they can deliver on the promise of maximum security under conditions of radical uncertainty. National. Consults on strategic planning, decision making, and competitive dynamics under uncertainty.

Has served on multiple non profit boards. Enjoys what his children enjoy: professional and collegiate athletics, hiking, and the beach. This research brief is based on Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis, “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,” National Bureau of.

In these times of growing uncertainty in the global and Asian strategic environments, the U.S.-Australian security alliance seems a pillar of stability. Even so, Rory Medcalf proposes it requires. Buy Business Strategy: Managing Uncertainty, Opportunity, and Enterprise Reprint by Spender, J.-C.

(ISBN: ) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders/5(11).The Methods Centers at Pardee RAND are an investment in the type of methodological and analytic innovation the policy community needs. Drawing on the expertise of more than 1, world-class researchers, faculty, and students, the Methods Centers organize RAND's diverse base of expertise around a set of interlocking and leading-edge analytic.Age of Uncertainty: The National Security Strategy Published by TSO (The Stationery Office) and available from: Online Mail, Telephone Fax & E-Mail TSO PO Norwich, NR3 1GN Telephone orders/General enquiries Order through the Parliamentary Hotline Lo-Call 7 Fax orders: